President Joe Biden and his predecessor donald trump They almost share honors in a hypothetical confrontation for the 2024 general elections, according to a new survey.
What happened: Biden garnered 48% support from registered voters nationally, and Trump is not far behind with 47% support, results from the national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Tuesday showed. Five percent of voters declared themselves undecided.
The survey surveyed 1,582 adults from January 29 to February 1.
The equation hasn’t changed much as the widest gap separating the two since August 2023 has been three points.
A breakdown of responses by party shows preference along party lines. Ninety-one percent of Democrats favored Biden and 93% of Republicans backed Trump, while 5% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans said they would vote for Trump and Biden, respectively.
Independent voters can tip the balance, according to the survey. Fifty percent of independents favored Trump over Biden, while 42% supported Biden.
Complicating the equation are Trump’s legal obstacles. When asked about whether they would choose him if Trump were convicted of a crime, 51% said they would prefer Biden in that scenario compared to 45% of voters, who said they would still back Trump. Five percent said they were undecided.
The percentage of Republicans who would vote for Trump even if he were convicted was 88%, down from the 93% who previously professed support.
“The future outlook in the likely confrontation between Biden and Trump remains unchanged, with one important exception,” he says. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute of Public Opinion.
“At this point, a Trump conviction would change the equation in Biden’s favor.”
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Will Haley make a difference? The poll also explored the possibility that former South Carolina Gov. nikki haley has against Biden if she were the Republican candidate. Biden led Haley by a margin of 46%-45%. Haley was found to have fared better than Trump among independents in a matchup with Biden.
He had a solid 12 percentage point lead over Biden among independents, compared to a more modest 8 point lead for Trump.
Approvalability of Biden, Trump: In line with other survey results, a majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job as president (54%-40%). The share of voters who had unfavorable and favorable impressions of Biden was 53% and 40%, respectively.
Trump fared slightly behind Biden in this regard. Forty percent had a favorable impression of him compared to 55% who had unfavorable impressions. That said, Republicans seem to have the mentality of forgiving him. Three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were not very concerned or not at all concerned that Trump would be too extreme for the general election.
Biden’s rating on key election issues continues to languish. Twenty-nine percent of Americans approve of how he is handling immigration and 54% disapprove of his economic policy, which is popularly called Bidenomics.
While Biden touts strong job creation and strong GDP growth as measures of the success of his economic policy, the general public is concerned about remaining high inflationary pressure and indiscriminate corporate layoffs.
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