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After months of Ukrainian victories, the situation in Avdiivka is disintegrating

After months of extremely harsh fighting that has resulted in some of the greater losses of Russian forces since the illegal invasion began, the situation in Avdiivka appears to be deteriorating rapidly. Unless something changes the next day, there is a strong possibility that Ukraine will lose its first city since the fall of bajmut.

Both Ukrainian and Russian sources report that Russia has extended its foothold into the city, pushing back Ukrainian troops and making the small area, which was already surrounded by Russian forces on three sides, very difficult to defend.

Until recently, Ukraine had enjoyed a huge advantage in Avdiivka in terms of losses, and a battalion commander in the area reported that Russia had lost 12 men for each one lost by Ukraine. But now that fighting is taking place at closer range and forces are moving from street to street, that proportion is rapidly declining.

Many in Ukraine have blamed Avdiivka’s declining prospects not on Russia’s willingness to release endless “meat waves” of expendable troops, but on another villain: the US Congress.

Avdiivka is a much smaller town than Bakhmut, with a pre-war population of only 31,000, compared to the 73,000 who lived in the largest town, about 50 kilometers to the north. By any measure, Avdiivka was also one of the most difficult positions for Ukrainian forces. The fighting there has not taken place for months: it has been going on for nine years. Avdiivka was captured by Russian-aligned forces during Vladimir Putin’s rule. First invasion of Ukraine in 2014.which held it for four months before Ukrainian forces liberated the city.

When the second invasion began in February 2022, the city was already on the front line. The war has been on Avdiivka from the first day.

In the last six months, the fighting in Avdiivka has been much more intense. Without him Wagner Group mercenaries to push the imprisoned troops forward as they did at Bakhmut, Russia has attacked Avdiivka the old-fashioned way: wasting men and machines in incredible numbers. And the numbers are truly incredible.

Avdiivka area.

As Ukraine pushed back Russian forces at Stepove so frequently that the terrain there was practically paved with the unrecovered bodies of Russian soldiers, Russia kept pushing, pushing, pushing, seemingly indifferent to the results.

Over the past two weeks, Russian forces have maneuvered south of the mine area, advancing between a group of small lakes and gaining a foothold in the northeast corner of the city. Now Russia appears to be expanding its area of ​​control, making it difficult to keep the remaining Ukrainian forces in the city in communication with Ukrainian forces in the northwest.

Ukrainian forces in the area increasingly issued complaints about a artillery shortage making it difficult for Ukraine to intercept Russian advances. United States has increased production of artillery shells, but those shells do not reach Ukraine.

For the frustrated Ukrainians, who have fought so hard here for so long, only one word expresses what they feel about giving up their positions due to a simple lack of ammunition.


He bill now being debated in the Senate It is just the latest attempt to satisfy this simple need. However, as things stand right now, it seems likely that Republicans will succeed in doing what they have done so well since taking control of the House: Hand over Ukraine to Putin..

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke publicly on Monday in an interview with a Italian news outlet, saying that a “reset” of leadership in the Ukrainian military is necessary and that several changes could occur. This follows earlier reports that Zelenskyy is replacing Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny.

Zelenskyy also expressed concern about the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in the United States.

“I want to believe and hope that if there are changes in the United States, the line will remain the same,” Zelenskyy said. “In the Republican Party there are radical voices, but also many people who support Ukraine. It is the people of the United States who decide, but if they intend to reduce aid to Ukraine, then there will be a new geopolitical structure. “Putin will break our defense, move forward and will not stop so easily.”


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